Danny Sheridan: Why I was wrong about Mobile mayor's race

"My reasoning was sound. Statistics don't lie, and the statistics favored Jones." - Danny Sheridan

?I?m sorry but sometimes I?m wrong.?

That?s how oddsmaker Danny Sheridan summed up the Mobile mayor?s race.

Sheridan, of Mobile, predicted that incumbent Sam Jones would defeat challenger Sandy Stimpson to win a third term in office.

Sheridan, a national sports handicapper, named Jones as an even-money favorite to win re-election in the Aug. 27 vote. And he was willing to back it up, offering to stake his prediction against anyone willing to wager, with Sheridan?s proceeds going to charity.

Sheridan said he got no takers on his bet until the Saturday night before the election, when he ran into a friend who was a Stimpson supporter.

?I told him I was surprised no one had accepted my charity wager, and he said he would. So we made a friendly wager,? Sheridan said, declining to name the person or the amount of money involved. ?I paid him and he donated the money to his favorite charity.?

Sheridan said he had sound reasons to support his prediction. Last November, President Barack Obama captured 60 percent of the vote in Mobile precincts against challenger Mitt Romney.

And Jones, Sheridan said, could claim momentum from polls showing that a majority of Mobilians ? some 62 percent, in one survey ? saw the city as heading in the right direction under his leadership.

?It?s very hard for a challenger to win? in that environment, Sheridan said.

I was in attendance on Aug. 16 when Sheridan, speaking to members of the Mobile Bar Association, asked his audience about the race. A solid majority - perhaps two-thirds of the 200 or so lawyers in the room - raised their hands when Sheridan asked if they thought Stimpson would win.

But when Sheridan repeated his challenge, not one of the well-heeled lawyers stepped forward to accept his wager.

What few including Sheridan foresaw was the apathy among black voters, who constitute a slight majority in Mobile. Many of the downtown precincts that helped catapult Jones to victory in 2005 saw steep drops in voter turnout on Aug. 27.

Stimpson, meanwhile, ran an energetic campaign that connected most strongly with voters in the city?s western precincts.

?I think the low African-American turnout was a combination of voters not happy with the mayor, but not enthusiastic about the challenger, either,? Sheridan said. ?I was very surprised by that.?

Among those who took glee in Sheridan?s miss was Chad Tucker, Stimpson?s campaign manager. An ebullient Tucker made reference to Sheridan?s prediction amid the celebration at Stimpson?s victory party on Tuesday.

"Where is Danny Sheridan?" Tucker quipped to Lagniappe reporter Katie Nichols. "When this idea began in a conference room in Scotch and Gulf Lumber, no one thought we had a chance. They didn?t know Sandy Stimpson and they didn?t know (the supporters).?

While Tucker was a believer, not many of Stimpson?s supporters could have predicted he?d win by such a wide margin. Stimpson captured 53 percent of the vote against 47 percent for Jones.

But politics, just like sports, has its share of Monday morning quarterbacks.

Sheridan said his phone was silent prior to Tuesday, but that he heard from plenty of Simpson backers following the election

?Just like cockroaches that come out when it's safe at night, they didn't have the guts to wager me or predict a Stimpson win to me,? Sheridan said. ?Now that it?s over they have called or tweeted me to say 'You were wrong, pay up.' But of course none had the intestinal fortitude to leave their name."

Sheridan said the election marked his first miss in the last eight Mobile mayoral elections. But he said he stood by his prediction.

"My reasoning was sound. Statistics don't lie, and the statistics favored Jones," Sheridan said. "But when people don't vote, the statistics get skewed."

Source: http://blog.al.com/wire/2013/08/danny_sheridan_why_i_was_wrong.html

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